Ocean Acidification - It's not complicated. Or is it?

The University of Washington's Ph.D. professor Cliff Mass has questioned whether modern civilization's increasing production of CO2 is the primary cause of ocean acidification and of shellfish hatchery failures. He questions if instead those failures may be more closely tied to an attempt at raising non-native oysters in waters colder and at times more "acidic" than where the shellfish are from. He has written a second perspective to the Seattle Times articles. In his second piece he writes:

"The ST suggested that mankind’s emission of CO2 was having profound effects today on shellfish in Northwest waters.   I argued that the ST story was exaggerating the current impacts of CO2 increases and neglected a key point: that the short periods of lowered ph (a measure of acid/base ) were predominantly caused by natural variability.  The truth is that mankind's CO2 emission is actually a very minor player in the current problems at local oyster larvae hatcheries."

Billions lost millions still harvested
Within the shellfish industry there is a belief that the cause of shellfish hatchery failures and the loss of "billions of oysters"* is directly related to increasing levels of CO2 being absorbed by the ocean's waters which in turn are causing a shift in the chemical makeup of those waters. It is believed that the increasing CO2 concentration in seawater decreases carbonate ions. This decrease in carbonate ions affects the saturation state for calcium carbonate, which makes it harder for shelled organisms to grow and maintain shells. As noted, Professor Mass believes the anthropogenic source is a small percentage of the cause.

*As a side note, according to production reports from the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, between 2008 and 2012 the pounds of oysters harvested in Washington state have remained relatively steady. From WDFW: 2008-9.7 million pounds; 2009-8.8 million pounds; 2010-9.1 million pounds; 2011-9.3 million pounds; and, 2012-9.4 million pounds. As it takes ~2 years for an oyster to reach maturity, the 2008 numbers include seed produced in 2006.

A complicated web and a chemical soup
It is important to understand that while the shellfish industry may be having problems "hatching" non-native shellfish using Puget Sound's colder waters, where native Olympia oysters and Geoduck appear to have no problems, there may be multiple causes for whatever problems they face, including genetically modifying oysters so they are sterile. The spraying of Willapa Bay tidelands to eliminate species of shrimp considered to be a "pest" by the industry is another example of a self-induced problem. Eliminating these shrimp causes sediments to firm and in turn creates a habitat suitable for Japanese eelgrass to grow in which the shellfish industry now wants to spray with Imazamox. It is little wonder the office of the Attorney General referred to Willapa Bay as a "chemical soup."

Crying wolf is counterproductive
Professor Mass summarizes his position in the following words:

The truth is that anthropogenic increases in CO2 are only having subtle impacts on our regional weather today, the big changes and impacts will occur decades into the future. Both global warming and ocean acidification are very serious issues and by the end of the century their impacts will be substantial.   But exaggerating and hyping the effects today are unacceptable.  Citizens and policy makers deserve the facts, not exaggerations designed to elicit the proper response.  Crying wolf in the end is counterproductive and undermines the credibility of science to promote the proper actions is unacceptable.

Ocean Acidification: It's Complicated

As added material to consider in what is becoming a deeply controversial topic, the University of Washington's Cliff Mass questions some of the fundamental conclusions reached in the recent Seattle Times articles on Ocean Acidification.  His "Ocean Acidification and Northwest Shellfish: Did the Seattle Times Get the Story Right?" gives another perspective. From his piece, he states:

My conclusion is that this series has some serious problems and draws several unwarranted conclusions. Particularly that recent shellfish problems are the result of past or current CO2 levels in the atmosphere.

More than Commercial Shellfish Matter to Puget Sound, Whatever the Cause of Calcium Carbonate Depletion
If one accepts the fact that CO2 is changing the oceans water chemistry and preventing the formation of Calcium Carbonate, then every marine species dependent on that molecule is impacted. Pushing forward with the significant expansion promoted by the shellfish industry in its "Washington Shellfish Initiative" and "National Shellfish Initiative" will do more harm than good through the "sponge effect" of massive shellfish farms currently being promoted soaking up the diminished supply of Calcium Carbonate. While good for the corporations promoting 58 raft mussel farms, it's bad for the native marine species who are also vying for the same Calcium Carbonate for their calcifying.

Alternatively, if there is a question about the cause of the diminishing supply of Calcium Carbonate, then more research is needed before the massive expansion being promoted is allowed. As an example of the size of what is envisioned, Jim Gibbons with Seattle Shellfish spoke before Washington representatives about how Spain, in an area the size of south Puget Sound (south of the Tacoma Narrows) is producing 600 million pounds of mussels each year. Currently, there are less than 2 million pounds of mussels being produced.

Strategic Marketing Matters, But You'd Better be Correct

Following the strategic marketing plan developed by Governor Gregoire's Blue Ribbon Panel on Ocean Acidification, Mr Manning and Mr Taylor build further on the Seattle Times three part series on Ocean Acidification in their "Guest" piece entitled "What we can do about ocean acidification and climate change". From the Blue Ribbon Panel's "Ocean Acidification: From Knowledge to Action" (4Mb): 

Educating elected officials, resource managers, business and industry leaders, and the general public (including youth) is a key prerequisite to action.

To improve understanding of ocean acidification and engage stakeholders in solutions, information needs to emphasize four key points. First, information must communicate
that ocean acidification is affecting jobs and resources here in Washington State. Second, materials must emphasize the importance of the ocean to our health, coastal economies, and well-being. Third, the information must explain the rapid change in ocean chemistry, the consequences of this change for marine life in Washington, and what it means for individuals and Washingtonians collectively. Finally, the information needs to show the value of early action and highlight the role that Washingtonians can play in developing and implementing solutions. (page 79)

Strategic marketing happens all the time in business and in politics. But if it is fundamentally flawed then there is a problem. In the case of Ocean Acidification, it needs to be examined closely. One small example of why that may be a wise course is to look south to Willapa Bay where not only native Olympia oysters are beginning to re-establish themselves, but so too are the Pacific oysters.

Cliff Mass is a professor at the University of Washington with a PhD in Atomospheric Sciences. He has taught at the University of Washington since 1981 and has authored "The Weather of the Pacific Northwest."

Jay Manning was Director of the Department of Ecology before being shifted to Governor Gregoire's Chief of Staff from which he resigned in 2011, saying he felt "worn out." In October of 2011 Mr Manning became partner at the Cascadia Law Group and returned to the Washington Environmental Council where he is currently President.

Bill Taylor is with the Taylor Shellfish Company.