Thursday, July 9, 2015

Uh-oh: What will happen when China's economy implodes?

Market problems: "...there is growing concern that that the slowdown in Chinese construction, and economic growth more generally, will be much more dramatic than previously expected."
Labor problems: "...on-going friction between purchasers and divers has further disrupted the [geoduck] market..."
DNR, June 2015 Quarterly Economic and Revenue Forecasts

Uh-oh.

Is a 30% loss - in 3 weeks - significant?
Chinese Shanghai Composite, 2015

Banks artificially propping up stock prices
has been tried before.
Will it be different this time in China?

You promised I could buy an Audi R8
if I leased my tidelands to you.
My bad.

 I also forgot to tell you, you'll
have to clean up after me. I'm 
taking my money to Alaska.
 
Look at all that "structure."

There is no moral risk for geoduck farmers who lease tidelands. Geoduck prices, artificially propped up because DNR refuses to replant their subtidal acres harvested of geoduck, does not result in a sustainable market, any more than the blind faith Chinese investors have placed in a popped stock market bubble will be maintained by banks propping up prices in a falling market.


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